I'm going to refer to the tribes simply as Fans and Favorites, at least until the inevitable swap. I'm going to give the Fans +13 points for winning the immunity challenge, and coming together later, and the Faves +9 points for winning the reward challenge and dominating air time.
So I'll focus on the gameplay of the Favorites today, for obvious reasons. At the start of the episode, the seemingly inevitable South Pacific/Redemption Island Alliance began to come together, but luckily for us, Phillip the Specialist had other plans, including handing out nicknames like crazy and tearing the alliance apart by targeting Francesca, leading to a battle between the two, although Andrea ended up being the target for Francesca's side. Dawn and Cochran ended up being the last two to pick a side, although I don't necessarily give them a ton of credit for that, because I think their Swing Vote status will only give them temporary power in the game.
1. Andrea: 22 Points.
I think I was wrong about Andrea. She's made the alliance with Malcolm I gave Brenda credit for, and I've almost decided to give her my projected Winner prediction, but I'm not giving up on Brenda yet. Still, everything about this episode highlighted that Andrea has kicked her game up a notch, and the editing seems to suggest she might win, but I'm looking past the edit, and trying to look at this logically. At the end of the day, her fate was decided by Cochran and Dawn, not her own dominance, and I think the swap will take the power out from under her.
Pre-Season Prediction: Early Boot.
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror.
2. Brandon Hantz: 22 Points.
Brandon impressed me in this episode, with his ability to see through Andrea, although now that he's on the wrong side of the numbers, I think his breakdown will come sooner.
Preseason Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
3. Brenda: 17 points.
Brenda isn't doing well to be brutally honest. She's not getting a lot of screen time, and she's on the wrong side of the numbers. A Hantz meltdown and a Tribe Swap are going to her friends. Although I didn't like the Fans identifying her as dangerous.
Preseason Prediction: Winner
Preseason Prediction: Winner (but probably not for long.)
4. Corinne: 18 Points.
I'm going to watch Gabon soon I promise. Corinne is looking to be in great shape of this game. She's got a good relationship with Cochran, and is on the right side of the numbers. She's not getting enough air time, but that's because there was a lot of other drama to cover, so I think we can't count her out just because of that.
Preseason Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror
5. Dawn: 24
Dawn impressed me this episode, and I now think from her edit that she's going to be crucial in Cochran's demise later this season.
Pre-Season Prediction:Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror
6. Erik: 14 Points
Erik is a strong competitor, but I think I've noted the flaw in his game. He's too focused on threats, and not capable of strategically dominating like a Boston Rob. He's going to have to be in danger before he starts playing well, if he does at all.
Pre-Season Prediction: Early Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
7. Francesca: 29 Points.
HAHAHAHA!!! Funniest boot ever.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode: 1st Boot!
8. Cochran: 37 Points
Cochran is fun to watch. I think that I overestimated some of his competition, and their ability to see how big a strategic threat he is. Instead they let him have all the power in tonight's episode. I think he'll ride that power to the merge, before a power move, possibly lead by Dawn turn on him.
Prediction: Early Boot
Prediction: Early Juror
9. Malcolm: 28 Points.
Malcolm is a great player. He got through the first danger period easily, through his physical prowess and his great Social Game. I just wish he wasn't a choke artist in challenges though...That's going to cost him I fear.
Pre-Season Prediction: Finalist
1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror.
10. Phillip: 32 Points.
Phillip is hysterical, and I am so thankful for him to turn the game away from the Obvious alliance dominating the game. Unfortunately, I don't think the rest of the Favorites will let him hold his power position for long. He's proven he's a player. Now he'll get cut.
Pre-Season Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge
11. Allie: 17 Points.
Cool Kids Alliance? This edit promises that these 4 players will all leave early. And I think Allie is the weakest of the four.
Pre-Season Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
12. Eddie: 23 Points
Eddie will outlast Reynold as part of the Cool Kid Lunchtable.
Prediction: Early Boot
Prediction: Pre-Merge
13. Hope: 21 Points.
Oh Hope. You are a huge disappointment to me.
Pre-Season Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
14. Julia: 19 Points.
Julia got little air time, but she did get some.
Prediction: Late Juror
Prediction: Late Juror
15. Laura: 18 Points.
Laura and Julia are my hopes amongst the Fans.
Prediction: Late Juror
Prediction: Late Juror
16. Matt: 16 Points.
Matt will get to be a swing vote which will give him more time in the game then he really deserves. I am not impressed.
Pre-Season Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
17. Michael: 18 Points.
Michael could dominate if there weren't Favorites in the game.I think him getting voted out will be a huge part of the turn that gives the game to the Favorites.
Pre-Season Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
18. Reynold: 26 Points.
Reynold got a great edit, but he is part of the alliance I hate.
Pre-Season Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge
19. Shamar
Shamar is a great character, and I'm going to enjoy watching him this season.
Pre-Season Prediction: Early Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
Sherri knew all the Favorites which is more than I can say for some of the "fans"...
Pre-Season Predictions: Early Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
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