In one week, Survivor Caramoan will begin, and I think it's going to be a great season. It's Fans vs. Favorites 2, which is not the best format, since I think I would prefer a pure all stars season, but this format does give the Favorites a lot of pawns to play with, which will be interesting to see.
I'll dive into the fans a little later as well, but I think a favorite will win this season, so this post will focus on them and my thoughts on them. My first impression was that I wasn't as surprised by the cast as most people were. I think that the male favorites all seemed sort of obvious. I wasn't as sure about the girls, and I will admit now that I haven't even seen Corinne's season, although I promise that if she makes it to episode 4, I'll quickly marathon Gabon. Anyways, of the girls I thought they were much less obvious, and I thought Francesca just didn't belong there. I personally would have brought Alicia from One World Instead. She brings the ethnicity, and the loud mouthedness. Francesca just brings a history with Phillip, and her status as the first person to be voted off and then return. The other thing I disliked about the returnees is that too many of them came from Redemption Island and South Pacific Seasons 16-25 are represented in this cast, and yet 2 seasons hog 6/10 of the spots. Doesn't seem right to me.
Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm rooting for two of the favorites this season. Malcolm who I loved last season, and Brenda who is my pick to win this season. Both of them are in very real danger of being early boots, but I'm going to predict that somehow they form an alliance and make the Final 2.
So with that said, here are my predictions for how this Season will go. For the sake of my predictions, I'm going to say that both Fans and Favorites will lose 2 players before there's a tribe swap, and the players who get voted out there, I'll note as Early Boots. The next tier of four will be the Pre-Merge boots, then I'll divide the last twelve into Early Jurors, Late Jurors, Finalists, and my pick to Win.
So here we go.
1. Andrea.
Andrea returned from Redemption Island only to be quickly voted out again by Boston Rob, finishing in fifth place in her season. Coming from Redemption Island, she's pretty much an unknown quantity, since Boston Rob completely owned that season. I think a lot of people saw untapped potential from her, and there are several people picking her to be the "Parvati" of this season. I am not. I see her getting into an early conflict with Brenda, where one of them gets voted out. As I'm picking Brenda to win, that means I'm picking Andrea to get an early boot.
Prediction: Early Boot.
2. Brandon Hantz
Brandon has a few screws loose, and he was brought back because he's a character. He is not a player, and I think all of his baggage from South Pacific is going to lead to him playing an erratic game that might be fun to watch, but I doubt will lead to him having even a remote chance of winning. I also think his fear of pretty women will be instrumental in Andrea's early demise in this game. I think Brandon's challenge strength will give him a pass on a few tribal councils, but ultimately he is too crazy to allow even make it to the jury, and I think he'll finish around 13th place.
Prediction: Pre-Merge
3. Brenda
Brenda was doing great her season, but she got a little cocky and it lead to her downfall. That and NaOnka making moves based on whatever random passion took her. Actually I think the way Holly orchestrated Brenda's fall was probably the best move of that whole season. So what Brenda has going for her is fairly obvious. She's beautiful, she's charming, and she's got a good head on her shoulders. She's a decent competitor on a tribe that will be competitively weak. She fits an obvious "Parvati" archetype which will work against her, especially early on. But if she can make it through the early tribal councils, I think she can build momentum, and I'm positive that the area of the game she's dwelled the most on over the last few years is how to stay on top once you've reached that spot. I also think she'll end up aligning with Malcolm because they'll both be early targets, and together I believe they can run the table. She'll also have an easy time manipulating the male Fans, as a flash of her smile will quickly charm anyone.
Prediction: Winner
4. Corinne
I haven't seen Gabon, although I promise I will if she makes it to the 4th episode. What I know about her is that she apparently has a mouth on her, which I think will make her fun TV, but I don't see her being a huge impact on this season.
Prediction: Pre-Merge
5. Dawn
I'm not terribly excited about Dawn's return even though she was very nice. She won immunity some, and had a great social game, so I understand those who want to pick Dawn to win this game. I think Dawn will finish about the same as she did in South Pacific. I just don't see her having the aggressiveness to finish off a season, and she's too nice to get taken to the end.
Prediction:Late Juror
6. Erik
I'm going out on a limb, and predicting that Erik doesn't give away immunity this time. But in all seriousness Erik has a great chance this season. He's strong on rather weak tribe, and he's got a reputation for being honest and naive which should take him far. Then a last moment immunity run should be enough to take him to the end. That's why no one will let him get that close. I think Erik will be smarter this season, but I don't think he'll have suddenly become this Machiavellian mastermind. He'll get outplayed and voted out once he's outlived his usefullness.
Prediction: Early Juror
7. Francesca
I think it would be hilarious if Francesca was voted out first again. But I don't think she will. I don't see anyone really gunning for her other than Phillip, and I think she'll prove herself good enough to avoid his early attempts to vote her out. I see her being a pivotal member of my fantasy Brenda/Malcolm Alliance and rolling far with them. She has a chance to be the most improved player, but I think she'll also ultimately come up short.
Prediction: Late Juror
8. Cochran
Thanks to Cochran, Ian Terry got cast on Big Brother 14. He was great entertainment, and I like many others was rooting for him. He got had. This season seems different. On paper, Cochran has this game already won. He has built in alliances, he's not much of a threat, and he's a student of the game. On Day 1, I predict that this will seem like Cochran's game to lose. On Day 3, I think Cochran's torch will be snuffed. Why? Because Cochran's only chance of winning is by playing a strong strategic game. He's not strong enough to last those early tribal councils, and he doesn't have the social skills to enforce such a strategic game. Plus, I think there are others who will see that Cochran has the game in hand, and won't like that. In fact this will be one of the biggest things to help my fantasy Brenda/Malcolm alliance. The threat of Cochran's strategic game, combined with his lack of a competitive one will allow them to gain support to vote Cochran out and take control of the game.
Prediction: Early Boot
9. Malcolm
I'm curious how they're going to edit Malcolm's early conflict in this game. His problem is that Survivor Caramoan is filmed prior to Malcolm's season airing. So Malcolm will be an unknown to the rest of his tribe. Who was the last unknown allstar? Russell Hantz. Yeah. Malcolm is coming in with a huge target on his back. Luckily, he's on a rather weak competitive tribe, so they're going to need him. That should buy him enough time to work his charm and put together my fantasy alliance with Brenda. Later on in the game, I think Brenda will try and turn on him, but Malcolm will be one step ahead of her by winning some individual immunities. That'll take him to the end, where we can see how he handles a jury.
Prediction: Finalist
10. Phillip
Last, but certainly not least. I think Phillip is out to prove that Redemption Island was not a fluke. He had a strategy with his madness. It'll be interesting to see if it works. I think people will try and take Phillip to the end as a goat, but give up before the end. He's just too much of a wild card. I do think he'll outlast Francesca though.
Prediction: Late Juror
So there you go!
I'll try doing the Fan preview before the premiere, although it won't be as in depth, due to me not knowing them as well.
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