Tom's Take:
And there's your final 4 people. Congratulations Malcolm, Denise, Lisa, and Skupin for reaching the Survivor Finale! I hope to do a full overview of everyone afterwards, but first let's do a little speculation on Final 3 and Final 2 Scenarios. Let's go.
First off, I think Malcolm wins any Final Tribal Council he's in. And I think Denise beats Lisa and Skupin in a Final 3, so let's delve into the three other final 2's that don't include Malcolm.
Denise vs. Skupin:
I give Skupin; RC, Lisa, and Penner for fans of Skupin, and Abi, and Pete for disliking Denise.
I give Denise; Jeff Kent for not wanting a returning player to win, Carter for being on the same tribe as Denise, Artis for hating Skupin, and obviously Malcolm.
I'm calling this 5-4 for Skupin, but I could easily see Pete flipping and voting for Denise, or Penner approving more of Denise's game, so I give him maybe a 52% in this one.
Skupin vs. Lisa:
I'll give Skupin; RC and Penner. I think Lisa gets everyone else.
I'd call this 7-2 for Lisa. I think she's actually picked the perfect person to go to the end with if it's a Final Two.
Lisa vs. Denise
I'm giving Lisa; Skupin, RC, Artis, Pete, Abi Maria as a Tandang majority vote. I'll also give her Penner because I don't think he likes Denise as much.
Denise gets; Malcolm, Jeff Kent, and Carter.
So Lisa beats Denise 6-3.
I guess that means my projected winners in a vacuum would be Malcolm, Lisa, Skupin, then finally Denise. Let's try and delve into why below.
Dang Rayne Tribe
Penner: (265 points) 5th Juror.
Carter: (147 points) 6th Juror.
Jeff Kent: (152 points) Second Juror
Denise: (223 points) Denise made a costly mistake in tonight's episode. I have no idea why Abi bothers her so much, but she let her dislike of Abi blind her to good strategy. Instead of trying to work a Final 3 scenario with Abi and Malcolm, she continued blindly down the path of the Final 4. The result is that she's probably going to get 4th. Should she? No. As I've already stated, I believe that the other three can beat Denise if they get to that point. But I think Malcolm will win individual immunity and turn on her. If not she'll have to face a hostile Tandang jury that will be bolstered by Abi's hatred of her. I think Denise played a very good early game, but she's really sputtered here at the end. It's unfortunate, but there you go.
Mike Skupin: (253 points) Skupin has been very gimmicky this season, which is surprising given how important he is to the end game. He got headbutted by a whale shark! I love his optimism for the game, and the whole experience. I don't think Skupin is going to win, because the only scenario where I'm projecting that is with Denise, and I don't see how that happens, but I'm glad he's had another chance to play this game.
Abi Maria: (282 points) Abi floundered this episode by failing to make a real offer to Denise. I have no idea why that animosity was so strong, but in my eyes it has cost both of them this game.
Artis: (113 points) Third Juror.
RC: (144 points) First Juror.
Lisa: (270 points) Okay, I'm going to defend the move by Lisa to vote out Abi over Denise. If it's a Final 3, she does not want Abi there with her and Skupin. Despite everyone saying she has no shot to win the game, she was in a tight alliance with Pete and Artis. That's two votes. In a Final 3, there will only be 8 jurors, that means that Abi will be two votes away from victory. And if Lisa and Skupin just screwed over two members of their own alliance...well there's an odd coincidence in the numerology there isn't there? And would she be sure that she would have Penner or Jeff Kent's votes? I don't think so. I think her best shot is to send Abi to the jury as a vote for her over Denise, continue spouting pro Tandang sentiments to get Artis and Pete on her side, and then work on a critical fourth vote from either Jeff Kent or Carter. And that's to beat Denise in a Final 3. If she can arrange a Final 2 against Skupin, I think she runs away with this thing. That's why I think Lisa is second only to Malcolm in her likelihood to win this season.
Peter: (159 points) Fourth Juror
Malcolm: (353 points) I love how ruthless Malcolm is. This episode made it clear that despite his long allegiance with Denise, he will sell her out in a second to make it to the Final 3. I think if it is a Final 3 this season, he'll be one immunity win away from doing just that. Even if he doesn't win immunity, all he has to do is convince Skupin and Lisa that he's the one who will flip and that Denise won't turn on him. That'll force the tie between Denise and Skupin or Lisa, and that's when Malcolm can just flip. His only real obstacle left from where I'm sitting is if it's a Final Two. He would have to win that Final Immunity in that scenario, but against Skupin and Lisa, I'm sure he can do it. That's why I think Malcolm will win this game.
Final 11 Rankings
1. Malcolm: 353
2. Abi Maria: 282
3. Lisa: 270
4. Penner: 265
5. Skupin: 253
6. Denise: 223
7. Peter: 159
8. Jeff Kent: 152
9. Carter: 147
10. RC: 144
11. Artis: 113
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