Saturday, February 28, 2015

Five Drinks Into Reality TV: Survivor Season 30 World's Apart: Episode 1 Survivor Warfare

Tom's Take:

And we've got another season opener in the books, and I think this season looks like it could be very good. I was never as down on San Juan Del Sur as everyone else is, but this season looks like it is working to correct the mistakes casting made from last season, when they cast a number of people with no idea how to play the game. This season, everyone has an idea how to play, and it should be fun to see them clash.








White Collar Tribe:
(Masaya)

I like the White Collar Tribe. They all seem to have been fans of the show, other than Juaquin, and because they went to tribal council this week,  Each of these characters is fully formed as a character, and I feel pretty confident we can predict how good they will be at this game. That said, the way White Collar has been framed in this game, I don't believe any of them actually will win.


1. So


So was a great challenge player, but she made some dumb strategic and social moves early on in this game. She never should have volunteered to be one of her tribe leaders, or let Joaquin dictate the choice between deceit and honesty, or make up the "neutral option."
1st Episode Boot


2. Joaquin



Oh Joaquin. You are a strong male, but you don't have the numbers, and you are the least knowledgeable of the game in your tribe. You are not long for this game.

1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge




3. Shirin





Shirin screwed up the puzzle, and despite being saved this week, she could still be in trouble next week, if her tribe loses again, and the guys get together, she could be the one to be voted out.  That said, I think she's been established well enough, that I do think she will end up going far.

1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror


4. Carolyn


Carolyn was fun, and she found the hidden immunity Idol, but she did not have a good tribal council performance, as she called out her alliance and the fact that Tyler wasn't in it. She could be blindsided by Tyler soong.

1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge


5. Max



I don't like Max very much. He's too smug, and he breaks the 4th wall too much. But he's in a good spot to be safe until at least the merge.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror


6. Tyler


Tyler is the best player among the White Collar Tribe, as evidenced by his tribal council performance. I hope he goes far, but I think his whole tribe is doomed to not be able to win.


1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror



Blue Collar Tribe:
(Escameca)

So with the way Jeff and the producers have framed this season, with the Blue Collar Tribe as the heroes, I really think the winner is coming from this tribe, but I didn't actually predict one of them to win because I couldn't see any of the individuals winning.  But I do like the tribe, and am hoping this season plays out with them getting their asses kicked.


7. Dan


Dan is a terrible player. Don't kid yourselves Dan fans, Dan is playing a terrible social game, which is why everyone on his tribe other than Mike hates him.

1st Episode Prediction: Early boot



8. Mike




Mike ate a scorpion. That is all.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot



9. Rodney



Rodney is being called Boston Rod by many, and his strategy appears to be to work with the girls. This should get him fairly far, but I think he'll end up get his ass handed to him once they reach the merge.

His story about his sister is tragic, but he's kind of slimy for using it like that.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror



10. Sierra


Sierra is very tall, and she hates Dan. That's enough for this post. She's in the numbers, but I don't see much of a gamer in her.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror


11. Kelly


Kelly wasn't shown bonding with Boston Rod, so I don't know for sure whether she's in that alliance, but it's safe to assume, since she hates Dan. I predict she's go quietly before the merge.

1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge


12. Lindsey




I almost picked Lindsey to be our winner, but I chickened out of it. She does have some good confessionals though. I reserve the right to get back on her band wagon.

1st Episode Prediction: Runner Up



No Collar Tribe:
(Nagarote)
The tribe should be a train wreck, but instead they seem to be the most together of the tribes, love triangle aside, and I think we've got our first potential winner from this tribe.




13. Hali


As a fellow law student, let me just correct one thing. Hali should be white collar. I don't care what kind of lawyer she intends to be, lawyers are white collar. We literally are the ones who learn and make the rules!!!

Anyways, I don't have much else to say about Hali, she had a quiet night.


1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror


14. Will


Will will be in Ponderosa making sandwiches soon.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot



15. Nina


Nina is deaf and standing up for other deaf people. Good for her. She's going nowhere in this game.

1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot



16. Vince



Vince is a crazy person, and it makes excellent TV.

1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge



17. Jenn



Jenn is very pretty, and getting some good confessionals. Love triangle aside, I think she's set up to do very well in this game.

1st Episode Prediction: Runner Up


18. Joe

Joe is my winner pick! He started a fire, dominated the challenge, and got into a love triangle where he is clearly the superior male.

1st Episode Prediction: Winner

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