And we got our premiere. I am so excited about this season. We got a great first episode, and there was some great character development and backstory! The twist this season is doing a great job building in drama and relationships, and I'm doing incredibly well on my early predictions, which I always love.
Day Zero insured that everyone got air time for this first episode, so we know all our players pretty well now.
And the instant elimination changed the dynamic of the game, and naturally Rupert took his wife's place just like I called.
The challenge this week was a classic three parter, but I wish it didn't always come down to the puzzle. It just seems like a good puzzle maker makes up for all other types of competition deficits.
Anyway let's get to our players.
Tadhana
1. Hayden: (7 points)
Hayden had a quiet night, but he still got a couple lines in. Hayden was never known for his DR's, and he's not an aggressive strategist, so this isn't surprising, but I think the fact that he's being included does bode well for him. He is a part of the Locker Room Alliance which is going to dominate the game pre-merge. So he's in the right spot and he's laying low. Typical Hayden. Steamroll it bro.
Prediction: Winner
1st Episode Prediction: Winner
2. Rachel: (4 points)
I actually like Rachel, because I've watched some clips with her and Tyson, but unfortunately with the Locker Room Alliance in the Tadhana Tribe, she's in trouble. Luckily, I think she'll be the last girl booted on her tribe, and if she makes it to the merge she can still hook up with Tyson and whatever alliance he's got going on. But she didn't get much air time tonight, so I'm worried about her.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge
3. Vytas: (12 points)
Out of pure loyalty to Hayden, I'm sticking with him as my winner pick, but Vytas definitely got the edit for a winner tonight. He's got the backstory, the character building, and is the only member of the Locker Room Alliance seen talking strategy with the girls. Hayden will need to get Vytas out before Final Tribal Council, because otherwise Vytas will win this season.
Prediction: Finalist
1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror
4. Ciera: (6 points)
I like Ciera. She's got spunk, and is another person with her backstory shown in this episode. She's on the wrong side of the numbers in her tribe, but I think Katie will go before her, and just judging from the edit I think she makes the merge. I don't know where she goes from there though.
Prediction: Finalist
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
5. Katie: (1 point)
Katie is in trouble. She sucked at the puzzle, and cost them the challenge. She got lucky with Gervase pulling his stunt, but I think she'll be out if her tribe goes back to Tribal Council.
Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
6. Caleb: (3 points)
Caleb had a great premiere episode, and he is the redemption for Colton, and he's the one who doesn't trust Brad Culpepper who appears to be playing too hard. The result is that I think I'm giving him Vytas' spot in my projected finals.
Prediction: Early Juror.
Prediction: Finalist
7. Brad: (18 points)
Brad is playing smart setting up the Locker Room Alliance, but he's getting the edit of playing too hard, so I think when they hit the merge his alliance will sub him out for their loved ones. And he won't see it coming, based on his "dummy" edit.
Prediction: Early Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
8. John: (3 points)
John is part of the majority alliance, which bodes well for him. I also think his relatively quiet strategy storyline shows that he's probably not a major player, but him having a personal storyline with his wife on Redemption Island points to him making it far. I think he's a finalist this season but gets zero votes.
Prediction: Early Juror
Prediction: Finalist
9. Marissa: (7 points)
Poor Marissa. Her uncle really screwed her. She seems like a fun character, so I'm hoping she lasts a while on Redemption Island, and I'm even hoping she comes back. But unfortunately I don't see that happening.
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
Galang (+10 points for winning immunity)
10. Gervase (17 points)
Wow Gervase was a mess this episode. He is a great presence on the show but he showed himself to be a terrible swimmer and not a particularly smart social player when he taunted the other team, which lead to his niece being voted out. His edit shows that he has a great personality and really should have been brought back for allstars, but I don't think he's destined to go far THIS season unfortunately.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge
11. Tina: (16 points)
Kudos to Tina for owning her daughter in the puzzle part of the competition. We don't yet know the strategic situation in the Galang tribe, so I don't really know where to place Tina in the grand scheme of things. I think the loved ones are going to do better than I initially thought though, which means Tina won't make it as far as I thought initially.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
12. Aras (15)
What was up for him voting for Gervase? That is the question I will be asking myself all season. If he ends up aligning with Gervase, I'll know it was a scheme, but what if it was actually his way of telling his brother who to vote off? Could he have thought that much into it? Or was he just throwing his vote away? So many theories, and I have no idea what it means.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Late Juror
13. Tyson: (12 points)
Tyson made fire, so kudos to him for that. He didn't get much else this episode. It was a very crowded episode, so that's understandable. We had to set up the Locker Room Alliance for strategy understanding, so we didn't get time to see what Tyson was up to.
Prediction: Late Juror
1st Episode Prediction: Early Juror
14. Laura M. (19 points)
Another member of the Puzzle Moms! She also got some votes during the first "tribal council" but she survived, which is a good sign for her.I think she may have some game, so I'm moving her up a little. But not a lot.
Prediction: Pre-Merge
Prediction: Early Juror
15. Monica (19 points)
I think Monica might be voted out to weaken Brad to be honest. And I think judging from her foreshadowy confessionals that Colton will be behind it.
Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
16. Colton: (18 points)
Colton is playing for redemption, which won't last long. I think he'll be back to his villainous ways soon. I think he'll have trouble making it to the merge though. Although if he reunites with Caleb, look out!
Prediction: Pre-Merge
1st Prediction: Pre-Merge
17. Kat: (12 points)
Kat won't beat Hayden in this game despite it being her goal.
Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
18. Laura B.: (14 points)
Called it. The fact that Rupert stepped in to help her won't push her much farther. I still think she's an easy out.
Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
Redemption Islanders
19. Rupert: (10 points)
Nailed it! I think he'll survive for a while on Redemption Island though, so maybe he comes close to returning?
Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Pre-Merge
20. Candice: (5 points)
No surprise. And I think she was right not to make her husband take her place. Same bank account right?
Prediction: Early Boot
1st Episode Prediction: Early Boot
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