Tom's Take:
Sean's Take: Where'd you get that video of me?
Ugh. For all my talk of being higher and mightier than other sports fans since I watch everything, I really, really do not want to watch the Super Bowl. Eli's face is ugly, Brady's a woman, blah blah. I can't even be funny or creative when it comes to hating this matchup.
So instead, I'll take the high road and go for some cold, hard facts. Hopefully this virtual ink won't be smudged from my actual tears.
Fact: Rob Gronkowski's ankle won't be fully healed in time for the Super Bowl. Gronk put up the most impressive season ever for a tight end, with 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. At 6-6, 265lbs with the determination of Liam Neeson in any Liam Neeson movie (outside of Love Actually) Gronk would give the Pats offense a major advantage over a very average Giants linebacking core, who gave up the 5th most fantasy points in the league to Tight Ends (according to ESPN.com). That of course includes the 101 points and a score for Gronkowski in the Week 9 matchup between the teams.
Aaron Hernandez is useful and all, but without a healthy Gronkowski to keep defenses away, Hernandez becomes a decent, if unspectacular option.
Fact: New England's defense is atrocious. Even the common football fan is well aware of this, but let's back it up with some numbers. They were middle of the pack in points allowed per game (21.4, good for 15th), but unlike with San Francisco's defense that doesn't say quite enough. While the Patriots only faced the 9th most rushing attempts over the course of the regular season, they allowed the 17th most rushing yards and the 19th most rushing touchdowns. The 4.6 yards per attempt given up by the Pats defense is a big reason why.
Still, we shouldn't expect the Giants to attack much on the ground. 5,000 yard passer Eli Manning (it's still a little strange that putting up nearly 5,000 yards in a season leaves you as the 5th best passing offense in the league) will absolutely desecrate the Patriots' secondary. Rankings are as follows: 31st in yards against, 22nd in touchdowns against, 29th in the critical net yards per passing attempt stat. It's ugly, especially when you note that the Giants were the only top 5 passing team the Patriots faced all season.
Fact: Neither team is that good. According to Pro Football Reference, the Patriots' expected win/loss record would be 11.6-4.4 based on their points scored/allowed over the course of the year. The Giants, according to the same stat, were at 7.9-8.1. So we've got a .500 team against what might appears to be the most porous #1 seed in some time.
There are huge flaws to be exposed on both sides: we went over the Patriots' defensive problems, the Giants' running game was the league's worst over the course of the regular season, the Patriots really lack quality offensive options, especially if Gronk is hobbled or out.
By no means am I ready to make a firm prediction yet, so check back later to find even better analysis on the game.
Tom's Rant: Out of the four possible matchups that could have happened as a result of the Conference Championships, this is the one I least wanted to see. Not because I think it will be a bad game, necessarily, unlike Sean, I think that both teams are pretty good. I just hate the storylines coming out about this game. People are focusing on this being a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl, and saying stupid things like Tom Brady might be intimidated by Eli, or wondering if Eli will get his second championship ring and prove that he's the better Manning. As a fan of teen dramas, I enjoy angst, and I understand the desire to characterize this matchup by the dramatic tension facing these two quarterbacks. I just don't think they'll be a factor in the game. For one thing, both Eli and Tom Brady are professional athletes, they aren't going to let these issues affect their performance. For another, and this is key. Football games aren't just about the quarterback. It's a team sport, and the winner will be, or should be the better team.
I'm not going to focus on stats. They're important, and I don't think the mainstream sports media spends enough time on them, but I think in this case those stats don't tell the whole story. The Giants lacked a strong running game this season in large part because Ahmad Bradshaw was out for several weeks, and it was clear to me while watching their game against the 49ers that the Giants running game is actually pretty good, and they appear to be dedicated to a balanced attack. The Patriots will have to respect the Giants' running game, and this will help the Giants' passing game gash an already weak Patriots' secondary. Eli is a good quarterback, regardless of any comparison to his brother, and he has good weapons in the Giants' receiving corps. Victor Cruz in particular impressed me during the 49ers game, but Nicks and Manningham are also good. I don't think the Giants will have much of a problem putting points on the board. The question is if they can stop the Patriots' offense.
Tom Brady is the better of the two quarterbacks in my opinion. He has the ability to make incredible throws, that are impossible to defend against. I believe Rob Gronkowski is a monster, and will play in the biggest game of the year. I think Hernandez is more than a "decent if unspectacular weapon.," and I doubt Wes Welker is letting his engagement to Anna Burns distract him from what's really important. I think Bill Belichick is an exceptional coach, and will have a plan to foil a Giants' defense that has been playing quite well this post season. I even think the Giants' defense have gotten overhyped after playing well against some lukewarm offenses, including a Packers team that did not look the same as the one that went 15-1 this year. With all that said, I believe the Giants will find a way to slow down the Patriots' offense.
I think this will be a good game, and be fairly close, but I don't think it will come to a last minute throw for a touchdown. I think the game will be decided by the defense, and I think the Giants have the better defense. So I think the Giants will win this game. I predict the Giants win 30-24.
Sean's Defense: When I first read your rant, I thought it was wrong. I'm not sure if there was any logic behind that, but I knew it was wrong. Somehow.
But now that I'm actually paying attention to the content, you've got it down (outside of calling these teams good, because I really don't think they are). I've gotta agree on just about everything you've brought up, which is scary but apparently I've taught you well. Although I think you're a bit high on the score, I'd go 24-20 in favor of the Giants, and yet another team that didn't deserve to even make the playoffs wins the Super Bowl. Sigh.
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